COVID-19 Planning Assumptions
During his press conference on April 14, 2020, Gov. Gavin Newsom unveiled California's Roadmap to
Modify the Stay-at-Home Order, which describes six indicators that must be met before the order can
be modified. In his presentation the governor described the need after the stay-at-home order is lifted
to "toggle back and forth" on social restrictions in response to changing conditions until "herd
immunity" is achieved in the state.
Based on available information, it is reasonable and prudent for the K-12 schools in San Diego County to
create contingency plans based on the following assumptions.
1. It will be safe for schools to return to normal operations when all the following have occurred:
a. The California stay-at-home order has been lifted
b. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the county has remained constant or declined
for 28 consecutive days
c. The directive to physically distance has been removed
d. Limits on group gatherings have been lifted
2. The virus that causes COVID-19 will remain in circulation until a vaccine is developed and widely
used.
a. A vaccine is not likely to be in broad use during the next 18 months.
b. During this time, improvements in understanding of the virus and in testing will allow public
health officials to act with greater precision when taking steps to slow the rate of infection.
Broad stay-at-home orders and long-term school closures are not likely to be needed in the
future.
c. A second wave of infections is expected, possibly coinciding with flu season in October or
November. This wave will not be as significant as the first but could result in site, district,
regional, or countywide school closures for up to four weeks.
d. Short-term closures of single or multiple schools will remain a possibility until a vaccine is
widely used.
e. Children and staff with significant health conditions will continue to be especially vulnerable
during this time.
f. Teaching and reinforcing prevention behaviors (handwashing and cough/sneeze etiquette)
and promoting flu vaccinations will continue to be important strategies in slowing the
spread of this and other infectious diseases.
g. Frequent cleaning and disinfection of high-touch surfaces will also be needed throughout
this period.
